By Jason Sampognaro | More Articles
May 14, 2013
When we think of gold, we think of the solid, safe-haven, value-holding, inflation-hedging, shiny, yellow metal that lets us sleep at night knowing the governments of the world cannot print it out of existence. Gold is the big cheese in the precious-metals investing community. There’s no doubt that gold should be a part of everyone’s investment portfolio, but it’s important not to forget gold’s little brother: silver.
Silver holds all of the same characteristics that make gold a great monetary metal. Silver is durable, malleable, easily recognizable, portable, divisible, and uniform (one silver coin is basically the same as the next). It is also scarce enough to make it valuable for smaller transactions. Most important of all, as with gold, no amount of money printing will reduce your physical holdings of silver by one bit.
What makes silver even more attractive than gold is its potential upside. There are several reasons why silver may outperform gold in the coming years. They are outlined below. After examining these reasons, we’ll explore the recent shortage of Silver Eagles at the U.S. Mint and what this all means for the price of silver in the long run.
Reason #1: The 16:1 Rule
Historically, silver has traded at about a 16:1 ratio to gold. At today’s current spot prices, silver is trading at closer to 55:1. If we assume that silver will eventually return to its historic ratio, the current deviation could imply one of three scenarios:
1) Gold will drop off a cliff
2) Gold will fall significantly, while silver simultaneously rises
3) Silver will skyrocket to all-time highs
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For the first scenario, let’s assume that silver’s price remains at current levels, and gold falls to assume the historic 16:1 ratio. At $30 per ounce of silver, gold would need to fall to $480 per ounce — a level not seen in almost nine years. For the second scenario, let’s assume that gold takes a significant hit. The most recent bearish estimates for the gold price have been around $1,200 per ounce. At a 16:1 ratio, silver would have to climb to $75 per ounce — more than double its current price. For the third scenario, let’s assume that gold maintains its current price, even though we at the Hard Assets Alliance think it is destined to move much higher. With gold at $1,600 per ounce, silver should be $100 — over three times its current price.
Of course, anything is possible, but if you believe that gold will rise as the dollar falls, what does that say about silver? Perhaps $100 per ounce does not seem so unreasonable.
Reason #2: The Metal of All Trades
Many of us think of silver as an investment metal, but silver’s main source of demand comes from industrial uses. In 2011, coin demand only made up about 10 percent of total demand for silver. The rest was applied, in everything from photography to jewelry and electronics. There are even some instances of silver replacing platinum in catalytic converters.
MAKE SURE YOU GET PHYSICAL SILVER IN YOUR OWN POSSESSION. Don't Buy SLV, or Futures or Pooled Accounts or any other BS paper silver product .Remember anything on paper is worth the paper it is written on. Go Long Stay long the bull market have even started yet
