Yuan Devaluation - Is this a Turning Point for Gold and Silver?

Last week saw multiple devaluations of the Yuan against the US Dollar which resulted in a decline of about 3%. Although in global currency terms this is not huge, it was the largest depreciation of the Yuan for 20 years. In 2005 China reformed its currency system by unpegging the Yuan from a strict tie with the dollar, in favour of a looser tracking policy. This last year in particular has seen the US Dollar rise significantly, not least because it has been seen as a ‘safer currency haven’ than others, and also because of the ‘market belief’ in an imminent rise in interest rates, which has caused the Yuan’s value to rise also. This has meant that China’s goods were becoming increasingly expensive, especially when compared to its regional rivals South Korea, Japan and not forgetting Indonesia, hitting exports quite considerably. China has also been seeking to build on its 2005 reforms in an effort to have the Yuan included in the IMF basket of Special Drawing Rights Reserve Currencies or SDR. According to Reuters “The PBOC said it would now calculate the daily Yuan fix, by taking more notice of market forces, including the closing price in the previous day's trading session. The devaluation sparked fears of a global "currency war" and accusations that Beijing was unfairly supporting its exporters, but the central bank on Wednesday sought to reassure financial markets that it was not embarking on a steady depreciation.” requirements. With Oil Prices falling again below $50 and the prices of industrial and construction metals such as nickel, copper and aluminium falling to 6 year lows, and a potential glut appearing on the World’s markets, the greatest fear arising now is that of further deflationary pressures, thereby causing further downward pressure on prices and delays by Industry to invest and expand in a ‘falling price’ environment. Our view, is that short-term at least, we now have a floor of around $1100 for Gold and $15 for silver while the markets digest and analyse the situation. We are still concerned about deflation being the more powerful factor which we feel could still undermine all commodity prices. The key question though is whether Jim Rickards is right in his book “The death of money” whereby other currencies follow suit and devalue further in retaliation. If that happens the Gold in other currencies will rise in value, and in dollar terms will do so should the Fed then delay interest rate rises, and even consider allowing the dollar to fall further. The next few weeks will give us all a clearer directional trend.




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